This year's drought in Europe has been intensified by climate change, according to a new analysis by scientists from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) initiative. Although some regions have not experienced a significant decline in rainfall, higher temperatures have dramatically increased evaporation from the landscape, worsening the impacts of drought. A warming atmosphere has become increasingly "thirsty", accelerating the drying of soils, vegetation and rivers.
Scientists from 13 countries, including hydrologist Oldřich Rakovec from the Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (CZU), analysed precipitation, soil moisture and the atmosphere's evaporative demand. Their findings show that this year's drought resulted from a combination of below-average rainfall and record-breaking temperatures, which substantially increased water loss from the landscape through evaporation. According to the study, the intensification of heat is a clear consequence of climate change.
A "Thirstier" Atmosphere Draws Moisture from the Landscape
"While long-term trends in precipitation remain uncertain, the atmosphere's evaporative demand has been increasing significantly as the climate warms. As a result, both the likelihood and severity of agricultural drought are rising," says hydrologist Oldřich Rakovec of the Faculty of Environmental Sciences at CZU.
"This means that the same amount of rainfall no longer provides the same amount of water in soils and rivers as it did several decades ago. This is particularly important for the Czech Republic because it lies on the European watershed. Most of our water flows out of the country, making us heavily dependent on the rainfall that falls directly within our territory."
Key Findings of the Study
- Agricultural drought (soil moisture deficit) is now around five times more likely in Western Europe due to climate change than it would have been in a climate 1.4°C cooler, i.e. without human influence. In Eastern Europe, where rainfall deficits have persisted for six months, comparable drought conditions are up to eleven times more likely.
- Heat—not reduced rainfall—is the main driver. The analysis found that climate change did not significantly affect spring precipitation but substantially increased evaporation.
- The drought threshold has shifted. A rainfall deficit similar to this year's would have caused only mild drought several decades ago. Today, because of much stronger evaporation, the same precipitation deficit leads to far more severe drought.
- The impacts are already evident. France is facing its worst maize harvest in 50 years. Since 2019, Romania has lost more than one million hectares of crops due to repeated droughts. Major wildfires have affected particularly France and Spain, while the Netherlands declared a water shortage in mid-July.
The Elbe River as a Warning
The study identifies the Elbe River as an example of how drought is affecting Czech waterways. Hydrological simulations for the Elbe at Děčín indicate that the average discharge between April and June 2026 was the lowest since records began in 1950. Similar trends throughout the March–June period have also been confirmed by observations from the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute and reports from the Elbe River Basin Authority.
"Low river flows reduce the draught and cargo capacity of inland vessels while simultaneously putting greater pressure on river ecosystems, primarily because warmer water contains less dissolved oxygen," Rakovec explains.
The Czech Republic Must Improve Water Retention in the Landscape
According to Rakovec, one of the country's priorities should be the consistent implementation and regular updating of existing drought management plans.
"The Czech Republic benefits from a historically well-developed system of reservoirs, especially the Vltava Cascade. These reservoirs help maintain river flows and improve the security of water supplies, including strategic withdrawals for the energy sector," he says.
"However, reservoirs are not an unlimited resource, and water also evaporates from their surfaces. At the same time, we need to restore wetlands and floodplains, improve water infiltration into soils and adopt more sustainable land management practices. Healthier soils and vegetation also promote evaporative cooling, which can locally reduce the impacts of heatwaves," Rakovec adds.
The full study is available at: https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/increasingly-hot-europe-faces-more-severe-droughts-and-growing-challenges-for-water-and-land-management/
Read our report on the condition of Czech rivers after the dry spring: https://zivauni.cz/po-suchem-jaru-chybi-voda-v-rekach-v-labi-je-malo-vody-jako-v-extremne-suchych-letech/