Wildfires, windstorms, and bark beetle outbreaks may affect European forests far more extensively in the coming decades than they do today. A large international study published in the prestigious journal Science, with contributions from researchers at the Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, shows that by 2100, the area of damaged forests in Europe could double.
AI Processed Millions of Data Points
Scientists analyzed the future of European forests using an artificial intelligence-based model that assessed different levels of warming. The model combines satellite data on forest damage with extensive simulations of forest development across more than 13,000 sites throughout Europe.
The model used more than 135 million data points and simulated forest development at a one-hectare resolution. This situation allows researchers to estimate how the risks of forest damage will differ across European regions.
In the Czech Republic, Bark Beetles and Wildfires Pose the Greatest Threat
“The Czech Republic has already experienced a dramatic increase in forest damage during the bark beetle outbreak of 2018–2022. Our results suggest that similar events — especially bark beetle outbreaks or large-scale wildfires — may become more frequent in the future,” say study co-authors Laura Dobor and Tomáš Hlásny from the Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences at CZU.
If the average temperature were to rise by more than 4°C, the area affected by wildfires, windstorms, and bark beetles could, according to the model, more than double by the end of the century. As a baseline, the researchers used data from 1986–2020, a period that had already witnessed an exceptionally high level of forest damage.
Even under a more optimistic scenario, in which global warming is kept to around 2°C, the study projects higher levels of forest disturbance than in the past. Tree mortality is a natural part of forest dynamics. What is new, however, is the scale at which wildfires, windstorms, and bark beetles are affecting forests.
Climate Change Will Hit Southern and Western Europe the Hardest
The extent and nature of forest damage largely determine how much carbon forests can store, how much timber they can provide, and which plants and animals can find refuge there. The study’s findings are therefore important for forest policy-making, forest adaptation to climate change, and society as a whole.
According to the results, forests in southern and western Europe will be the most at risk. Northern Europe is expected to be less affected, although local hotspots of damage may occur there as well. “Forest ecosystem disturbances are increasingly becoming a transboundary issue. They affect international timber markets and threaten the ecosystem services that forests provide to society,” says Rupert Seidl of the Technical University of Munich (TUM), the study’s lead author.
Original publication: Grünig, M.; Rammer, W.; Senf, C. et al. 2026. Climate change will increase forest disturbances in Europe throughout the 21st century (Science, in press). https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adx6329